ICYMI – Austin “supernova” forecast

I have written many times that the Austin-area real estate market has been generally on “pause” for much of 2022. I have also pointed out that our regional economy and demand to live and work here remain strong. I found an article earlier this week that supports that view:

Austin “supernova” market in 2023

Without historical context, our current market environment doesn’t seem to match that headline, but comparing where we are now to just the last 2 1/2 years exaggerates the recent changes.

First, “days to sell” is much longer on average than the “pandemic era,” but look at the previous three years:

This metric was unsustainably low during the pandemic and the first half of 2022, but Days on Market in October 2022 was the same as in January 2020, and the same or lower than October in 2017 and 2018.

Likewise, we have seen month-to-month declines in median price across the metro, but prices in October were still up 5% over the previous October, and notice that we have seen monthly price decreases off and on during this long boom. This year is different, and more sustained, but the median price in our 5-county area is still up from $280,000 to $480,000 in less than 6 years! And this level of annual price growth looks very normal compared to the pre-Covid years:

Even if you bought your home here during the past two years, you have most likely earned meaningful equity since then. This may not be the right time for you to sell, and we may actually see prices decline more in the coming months, but moving back toward meaningful housing inventory and more manageable price growth is good for our market and for most property owners in the area. (For a look at how these metrics and others behaved throughout this market cycle, see Yes, we are in a different market environment and Quarterly Update – Austin Market Dashboard.)

In the article linked at the top of this post, the Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers predict great things to continue in our area next year. It may not feel like it right now, but our current market conditions are not really unusual, just different from what we experienced in 2020 and 2021. Hang in there for the next phase of Austin’s growth.