Bill Morris on Austin Real Estate

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Five-year market comparison — supply-demand tension increases

I have told you for a long time that demand for housing in the Austin area has exceeded the supply of homes for sale. Courtesy of Independence Title, a few charts tell this story very well.

First, here is how unit sales in our 5-county metropolitan area look compared to the previous four years:

The previous peak for monthly sales was about 3,900 homes in May 2019. Through March 2020 sales were higher this year than the previous years, but at a somewhat reasonable growth pace. As coronavirus lockdowns began sales fell significantly, but market pressures overcame negatives beginning in May, and July sales peaked at more than 4,400! Even the dip in August left total sales at about 4,000 units. To some degree, this represents a delay in our traditional Spring/Summer sales, but match that extraordinary demand with the number of residential listings available:

While the number of homes sold increased all year, the number of homes available for sale began much lower than previous years and has dwindled since May, with the Months’ Supply metric falling below 1.5 for the first time. Note: that’s not just the urban core or the city of Austin. That chart shows supply for the metro area!

Predictably, strong demand with low supply led to price growth:

Yes, you saw that correctly … the median price of a home in the Austin metropolitan area was just below $360,000 in August and the average sale price was well above $450,000 across our 5-county region!

And look at the dollar volume of sales that resulted:

The total of home sales in July hit $2 billion for the first time, far above any time in the past!

I’ll have more to say on this using the metrics in my market dashboard, but these charts from Independence Title show clearly what an unprecedented environment we’re in in 2020! Stay safe, healthy, and prosperous. I’ll write more on this soon.