Latest Data on Austin Residential Market Trends

A few weeks ago (Monthly Price Update), I provided an update on the Austin-area residential market, with data complete through July. Now, August data is available from the Texas Real Estate Research Center, and I have updated my market dashboard:

Data through July showed that median and average prices were down on an annualized basis from December 2022 through July 2024, except for two months early this year. This month’s update shows that downturn continued, with the median sale price across our metro area down 4.4% from the same time last year. Month-to-month, prices have been flat all summer. In the bottom chart above, you can see that both average and median prices are below the trendlines for this market cycle, and still far below their peaks in 2022.

In the top chart above, the number of active listings (orange line) is down slightly over the past couple of months, but the number of sales (blue line) is flat over the past three months and down compared to May. The dotted green line is “Months’ Supply,” and that metric has been flat in recent months. It remains the highest we have seen in this entire market cycle. October 2011 was the last time we saw listing inventory higher than it is now.

That situation is highlighted in the middle chart, with the ratio of closed sales to active listings at just 23% in June, July, and August, the same level we last saw in January, September, October, and November of 2023. Before that, the last time we saw this ratio lower was in January and February of 2012, the market bottom from which we climbed into the current cycle.

The residential real estate market in our 5-county metropolitan area remains an unsettled and uncertain environment. Mortgage interest rates have dropped in recent months, as have prices, but many buyers seem to be in “wait and see” mode, with larger concerns such as recent memory of what looks like a pandemic-era market bubble, ongoing inflation, and election season. Long-term, I do not believe 2022 will look like a bubble, but that period is a common comparison now-versus-then.

This topic deserves more attention and ongoing analysis. I will keep you informed.