Are we in a market downturn?

I have written a number of times in recent months about the market transition we have experienced. I have pointed out that demand for employers and their employees to move to the Austin area remains very strong, but that a few months’ break from the frantic activity of the past two years will be healthy — time for prospective homebuyers to adjust to prices and interest rates and for listing inventory to expand and to get more competitive.

Saying that does not indicate that this is a downturn. Of course, market transitions are not necessarily straight-line, uninterrupted events, so there will likely be some bumps, but this snapshot of the past year does not show a downturn in progress:

The rapid growth of the green bars — Cumulative Days on Market — is not surprising. If you’ve been in the market or just watching news reports, you know that sales are slower now than they were earlier in 2022. But the scale is important. CDOM in August was just 16 days, still an incredible pace relative to many years of market history, and a week into September we’re up to 27 days on market.

The surprising aspect of that chart is that even as sales slow and inventory grows, sale prices (blue bars) across our 5-county region have not declined. We saw prices come down from April through August, but they’re back up so far in September.

Forecasts are that we’ll still see year-over-year price growth, even if we do see month-to-month dips along the way. If you’re thinking of selling, don’t get discouraged. We’re just taking small steps back toward “normal.” If you’re thinking of buying, you’ll find more homes to choose from than you did a few months ago. If you’re planning to sell and move within the metro area, you’ll find the process easier now.

As you saw in What’s Up with Mortgage Interest Rates?, expects expect interest rates to stay near their current level, so you shouldn’t see your buying power erode during the home buying process. I’m always available to answer your questions and help you make plans. Just let me know.