I have been predicting for a long time now that mortgage interest rates can’t stay this low forever. Logic still tells me that’s true, but I will leave forecasting rate increases to folks with better crystal balls than mine.
Two years ago this month I wrote in Mortgage Interest Rate — Historical Perspective: “Mortgage rates are on the move again, and this time it looks like increases are more likely to continue than the brief surges we have seen occasionally over the past couple of years.” Ha! If I ever offer you winning lotto numbers, just ignore me.
Here’s what really happened:
In my defense, note that there was a clear trend in 4Q 2010 that persisted through most of 1Q 2011. But then ….
I encourage my younger friends and prospective homebuyers to assume that 3.5% will NOT be the long-term mortgage interest rate. We are living in trying economic times with many historically unusual pressures. This too shall pass, and rates will begin to rise. Based on the available data now, though, I will not offer any forecast as to the timing of that change.
So true. My last 40 years of economics and having some sense of rate direction thrown out the window by the Federal Reserve……….
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Mark Sprague, State Director of Information Capital for Independence Title, is a respected analyst of the real estate and financial industries, and the Austin market in particular. For specific questions about market issues, contact Mark at firstname.lastname@example.org
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