Neighborhood Variations

In a number of blog posts and messages to my clients I have commented on how dramatically supply, demand, pricing, and time on market can vary from one neighborhood to another.  I decided to assemble some examples for specific discussion.  Today, I have put together a snapshot of market data for three neighborhoods north of Austin that most people would consider competitive in that they intend to attract  homebuyers to properties in the $250,000 to $400,000 price range on or near golf courses.  This 3-page PDF provides all the details:  https://billmorrisrealtor.wordpress.com/wp-admin/media.php?action=edit&attachment_id=147.

An excellent point of comparison is listing inventory versus buyer demand:

     — Avery Ranch:  47 Active listings, 3.3 months’ supply

     — Twin Creeks:    30 Active listings, 18 months’ supply

     — Forest Creek:   56 Active listings, 7.6 months’ supply

Generally, about 6 months of inventory is considered a “balanced” market.  More inventory than that tends to indicate downward price pressure, and conditions that favor buyers.  Less than 6 months of inventory tends to indicate upward price pressure, and somewhat more negotiating strength for sellers.  In these three competitive subdivisions you can see the full gamut from a fairly strong seller’s market in Avery Ranch, to a clear buyer’s market in Twin Creeks, and one that is nearly balanced in Forest Creek.  Note that this is not a judgement on the quality of any of these neighborhoods.  I actually like them all and actively show properties in all when I have buyers interested in this market segment.  The only point here is that based on the pace of sales over the most recent 90 day period, today’s listing inventory would last as indicated. 

Of course, some homes in each neighborhood sell quickly and others don’t sell at all — the result of location, size, age, condition, preparation, pricing, promotion and a variety of factors that are important to individual buyers.  Recent sales in Avery Ranch and Forest Creek included homes that were under contract with the first day or two after they went on the market.  (Those overall subdivisions include sections where there are homes close to the area’s median price, which has been dramatically affected by the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit.  Those homes are significantly less available in Twin Creeks.)  The shortest time on market in Twin Creeks since July 31 was a home that was under contract after 34 days — still quite respectable.  The longest time on market for properties that have sold in this time period:  Avery Ranch — 482 days, Twin Creeks — 336 days, Forest Creek — 159 days.

There is much, much more to a comprehensive market analysis, which is itself only a very small part of proper client consultation.  Part of each client relationship is my responsibility to understand the client’s wants and needs, my knowledge of the broad market and specific neighborhoods, and the ability to help my clients take best advantage of market conditions to meet their specific real estate objectives.  For now, I hope this short discussion helps to illustrate just how much market conditions can vary in our area at this time.