U.S. Markets in 2025 – pricing is a challenge

In my latest e-newsletter (Market Trends Continue) I shared some insights about real estate challenges affecting local and regional markets nationally. Today I have much more information about the broad U.S. environment. Much of it focuses on the role that new construction plays now in the larger residential market, but I want to share a few points here:

First, with mortgage interest rates and broad economic uncertainties making buyers tentative in their decisions, and with listing inventory dramatically increasing, price growth has largely stalled:

In that change, the Austin area has been dramatically affected:

In case you can’t read that slide on your device, you’ll find the Austin metropolitan area at the far right end of that chart with the largest year-over-year decline in home prices, second only to Tampa, FL.

The forecast for the rest of the year is mixed:

The average of all those forecasters is down compared to the beginning of the year:

Mortgage rates are expected to stay near their current levels, with the supply-and-demand imbalance likely to continue, so we’ll probably see today’s market environment continue for some time.

As I have provided ongoing market updates to my seller-clients in the Austin area, this situation has been visible, including the pricing challenge highlighted in the second chart above. Homes are selling but not robustly, and in some micro-market areas it is difficult to say with confidence that price adjustments will lead to changes showing and contract activity.

I’ll keep studying the market and reporting. Stay tuned ….