Monthly Price Update

One month ago (Market Dashboard and Case-Shiller Index) I wrote that average and median sale prices in the Austin metropolitan area remain significantly below their peaks in May 2022. The Case-Shiller cities, on the other hand, peaked at the same time and fell as our market did, but then recovered over the following year.

This is the Austin-area price chart, now updated through July 2024:

Average prices in our market are now very near the trendline for this market cycle, but median prices remain behind in recovery.

These charts show the magnitude of annual changes in our area more clearly:

It’s clear that very rapid price growth began here in mid-2020, peaking at more than 40% year-over-year increases in mid-2021, and instead of recovering in 2022-2023, Austin-area home prices spent most of 2023 falling, reaching 10% to 15% declines year-over-year. Annualized price changes remain negative in 2024.

Month-to-month price charts show our current situation:

Average prices were down in 13 of the last 24 months, and up in 11. Median prices were down in 14 of the past 24 months. Both were down in July 2024 compared to June.

The number of homes sold each months has been equally unpredictable, with little evidence of typical Spring-Summer seasonality :

The pandemic certainly interrupted and brought about huge changes in the longest market cycle we have seen. I have told you that the market is now working toward a balance of supply and demand that has been absent for years. With higher prices and mortgage rates keeping would-be home sellers on the sidelines and home builders unable to achieve needed capacity, this is a larger challenge than we have seen in any previous market cycle, at least over the last four decades.

More news to come as we go on ….