Market Dashboard Update

For several months I haven’t provided a comprehensive update of the market metrics I track in my dashboard. I won’t have refined data from the Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M for the whole first half of 2024 for a few more weeks, but this quick look will be useful:

In case you haven’t seen this before, the top chart in that set shows the number of active listings each month, the number of listings sold each month, and how long that inventory would last if the current pace of sales continued. A 6-month supply of homes for sale is assumed to represent a “balanced” market, without a built-in advantage for either buyers or sellers. We last saw that level of housing stock in 2012, as we transitioned from the Great Recession to the current market cycle.

For most of this cycle, the Austin-area residential market carried 3 months’ or less supply, and during the period in the red circle, our supply was well under 1 month frequently. Notice that from September 2020 through April 2022, with a brief interruption, we sold more homes than we listed every month That period is obvious in the second chart above, with ratio of sales to listings reaching almost 300% in March 2021.

In the third chart the effect of that environment on sales prices is obvious. It’s worth noting that average and median sale prices struggled to find equilibrium in 2023 and so far in 2024, but at this point they are approximately back to the long-term trendlines.

The chart below zooms in on 2020 to Present, with the upside-down market period visible:

The blue bars (unit sales) are clearly taller than the orange bars (listings) for almost two years, and the rapid price appreciation correlates with that time. You can also see that prices in April-May 2024 were very nearly the same as early 2021, even as housing inventory soars.

I will provide a more complete look at the first half of 2024 in a few weeks, but I encourage you to see Resale Market Changes: What a ride! My market dashboard features consolidated market activity from the research center, but that look at just the market for resale homes will help you, especially if you’re part of that market now or thinking of buying or selling.